Russia President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a “large-scale conventional war” with NATO, German intelligence has warned. Spy chiefs in Berlin believe Moscow sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to pursue its goals with military force beyond Ukraine, according to a leaked report from BND (Germany’s equivalent to MI6) and the Bundeswehr.
While there is no imminent threat to NATO, the report warns Moscow will likely be ready to wage a “large-scale conventional war” by the end of the decade.
Ukraine War Has Not Weakened Russia’s Military
The three-year war in Ukraine has not weakened the Kremlin’s war machine, which is producing weapons at a rapid rate. Russian losses are being replenished, and the country’s defense industry is producing more than what is needed for the current conflict.
Russia’s military expenditures will reach about 120 billion euros in 2025 (over 6% of GDP), quadrupling since 2021. The Kremlin plans to increase its army to 1.5 million personnel, with weapons and equipment on NATO’s border expected to grow by 30-50%.
Potential Testing of NATO’s Article 5
The leaked documents suggest Russia might strategically challenge an individual NATO country, testing the collective defense clause known as Article 5. Lithuanian intelligence suggests the Kremlin currently lacks capability to attack the entire Alliance but may “test NATO” with a small military operation against one or several bloc countries.
Baltic States at Risk
NATO’s Baltic States face a relatively low risk currently, as about three-quarters of Russian military units nearby are committed to Ukraine. However, if hostilities in Ukraine were to halt, these Russian forces could be redeployed to the Baltic borders. Despite troop concentration in Ukraine, Russia’s Air Force and Navy remain combat-capable.
Regional Leaders Express Concern
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated Russia could launch a new attack within a few years, giving Lithuania four to five years to prepare. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Estonian intelligence have also acknowledged the possibility of Russia-NATO conflict.
Ongoing Tensions
Relations between the Kremlin and NATO remain tense, with Russian authorities periodically making threats and conducting military exercises near NATO borders. Western partners continue supporting Ukraine while Putin unabashedly declares his intention to bolster Russia’s military forces, recently mocking Britain’s armed forces as “just 170,000 or 180,000” personnel.